Civilian Death Toll in Iraq: What's Wrong with this Picture

A recent survey conducted by Johns Hopkins University and Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad reveled that somewhere in the neighborhood of 655,000 Iraqi civilians have died during the course of the Iraq War.

The survey was conducted by going door to door to 1,849 households in Iraq. Local doctors interviewed each household and using the information gathered they gathered, the researchers were able to come up with a range of 392,979 and 942,636 deaths. 1,849 households, 392,979 and 942,636 deaths. Researches are confident that the number is between those two numbers. What a broad range.

Another study released by The Lancet a medical journal states there there were about 600,000 Iraqi deaths related to the war. 55,000 fewer than the study conducted by Johns Hopkins.

Commenting on the report President George W. Bush had this to say,

"I don't consider it a credible report."

General Casey also believes that the numbers from the two studies are way off. He is quoted as saying,

"That 650,000 number seems way, way beyond any number that I have seen,"
"I've not seen a number higher than 50,000. And so I don't give it that
much credibility at all."

Other studies using forensics, body counts, and eye wittness reports produced numbers in the range of 60,000.

Steve Heeringa director of statistical design at the University of Michigan quoted in the AP article had this to say:

"He said the study made "minor departures" from the standards generally used in
national surveys for choosing what households to interview. Whether those
departures, brought on by wartime conditions in Iraq, introduced a bias in the
results is impossible to measure from the data alone, he said."

Bias is a major factor that I believe renders these studies invalid. With 49 percent of Middle Easterners still supporting Usama bin Laden the validity of these results should be taken into question. People still loyal to Saddam could have easily reported bogus numbers to interviewers in an effort to have this study reflect poorly on the United States.

Conspiracy theories:
Les Roberts (co-author of the study) who worked at Johns Hopkins at the time is now employed at Columbia University. Columbia is undeniably an extremely liberal university. Columbia was recently in the news for the actions of their students during a lecture given by Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist. They rushed the stage interrupting Gilchrist and ending the lecture. All the while, chanting anti-immigration legisture slogans.

Also these numbers come right on the heels of the 2006 midterm election that are less than a month away. This election could mean the difference between a Republican majority or a Democratic majority. One of the key issues for many voters this year is the Iraq War, this study without a doubt will be used against Republicans, couple that with the Foley scandal and a Democratic majority is not far from reason.